Bitcoin’s $18 Billion Options Expiry: Navigating Post-Expiration Volatility

As Bitcoin approaches a historic $18 billion options expiration event on October 7, 2025, market participants are preparing for potential volatility shifts in the cryptocurrency landscape. This record-setting derivatives expiry represents one of the largest in Bitcoin's history, creating a pivotal moment that could redefine short to medium-term price trajectories. According to analysis from Bitfinex, the immediate aftermath may not show dramatic price swings, with significant movements more likely to develop within the 24-72 hour window following expiration. This pattern aligns with historical behavior where suppressed volatility typically precedes major options expirations, only to give way to more pronounced directional trends afterward. The current market sentiment reflects cautious optimism among institutional and retail investors alike, with many watching for potential buying opportunities that might emerge from any temporary price dislocations. The sheer scale of this expiration event—$18 billion in notional value—underscores Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class and the growing sophistication of its derivatives markets. Market makers and large holders are likely implementing complex hedging strategies that could contribute to unusual trading patterns in the days following the expiry. This event occurs against the backdrop of Bitcoin's continued integration into traditional finance, with growing institutional adoption and regulatory clarity in major markets. The options expiration provides a crucial stress test for market liquidity and the robustness of cryptocurrency infrastructure. While short-term price action remains uncertain, the long-term bullish thesis for Bitcoin appears intact, supported by its fundamental properties as a decentralized store of value and hedge against monetary inflation. Investors should monitor trading volumes, open interest changes, and funding rates across major exchanges for clues about the market's next directional move.

$18 Billion in Bitcoin Options Set to Expire—Here’s What to Expect

Bitcoin faces a pivotal moment as $18 billion in options contracts expire today, marking a record-setting event that could reshape market dynamics. Analysts from Bitfinex suggest volatility may not be immediate, with potential price movements emerging within 24-72 hours. Historical patterns indicate suppressed volatility preceding such expirations, followed by sharper directional trends.

Market sentiment leans cautiously bearish, with 51% of prediction market participants on Myriad anticipating further downside this weekend. Bitcoin clings to marginal September gains while the broader crypto market struggles. Notably, October's options open interest totals $78.9 billion, with concentrated call options at ambitious $115,000-$125,000 strike prices—a bullish bet on distant horizons.

Bitcoin's Divergence from Global Liquidity Trends Sparks Debate on Inflation Hedge Role

Bitcoin's price trajectory continues to decouple from the M2 money supply expansion, challenging its perceived status as an inflation hedge. The cryptocurrency now lags 70 days behind money supply growth according to Theya's Joe Consorti, while Gold maintains its traditional correlation with liquidity measures.

The digital asset's recent performance mirrors high-risk tech stocks rather than safe-haven assets, remaining range-bound despite ongoing monetary easing. After testing resistance NEAR $114,000, BTC retreated to $111,700, marking a 4.5% weekly decline as it hovers above critical support levels.

This divergence occurs against a backdrop of record M2 money supply levels in the US, encompassing cash equivalents and short-term deposits. The growing disparity raises fundamental questions about cryptocurrency's role in modern portfolios during periods of dollar weakness and geopolitical uncertainty.

BlackRock Expands Bitcoin ETF Holdings in Global Allocation Fund

BlackRock's $17.1 billion Global Allocation Fund increased its exposure to Bitcoin through the firm's spot ETF (IBIT) by 38.4% in Q2, according to an SEC filing. The fund now holds 1,000,808 IBIT shares worth $66.4 million, up from 723,332 shares at the end of April.

The move marks a reversal from earlier reductions, with year-over-year holdings surging 403% since July 2024. IBIT currently represents 0.4% of the fund's assets, approaching BlackRock's recommended 1%-2% allocation range for bitcoin in diversified portfolios.

This strategic accumulation reflects growing institutional comfort with crypto assets as portfolio diversifiers. The Global Allocation Fund maintains investments across global equities, fixed income, and short-term instruments while gradually increasing its Bitcoin weighting.

MicroStrategy Faces ‘Brutal Bear Market’ as MSTR Stock Plummets Amid Bitcoin Downturn

MicroStrategy’s MSTR stock has plunged 45% from its November 2024 peak, as the company grapples with a vicious feedback loop of declining Bitcoin prices and eroding market confidence. The firm, which holds over 1 million BTC collectively with other public companies, now faces existential questions as crypto markets bleed.

Michael Saylor’s bold 2020 Bitcoin bet initially paid off spectacularly, with MSTR soaring from $132 to $543 on HYPE around corporate crypto adoption. But the tide has turned sharply by September 2025, with analysts warning of potential distressed selling if the bear market deepens.

The Bitcoin Treasury sector—where MicroStrategy remains the undisputed leader—has become ground zero for the current crypto rout. Even staunch supporters now question whether the company’s high-wire act can survive sustained pressure.

Bitcoin's Sharp Decline: Four Key Drivers Behind the Selloff

Bitcoin's price plunged below $110,000 this week, marking a six-week low and unsettling even veteran traders. The selloff reflects a confluence of market forces, from derivatives expiration to macroeconomic tremors.

Deribit's $22 billion options expiry amplified volatility as traders scrambled to adjust positions. The event coincided with Bitcoin testing critical support levels, triggering cascading liquidations across Leveraged positions.

Political uncertainty in the US and unexpected economic data further eroded risk appetite. The crypto market's sensitivity to these traditional finance indicators underscores its growing integration with broader capital markets.

Bitcoin Traders Lose Confidence as Odds Favor Dip to $105K Over $125K Milestone

Bitcoin's recent price weakness has shifted market sentiment, with predictors on Myriad now favoring a drop to $105,000 before a rally to $125,000. Odds for the lower target surged to 68% this week, marking a 25% increase—with over half that movement occurring in just 48 hours. The asset hovers 4% above $105,000 as of press time.

The downward pressure coincides with a 5% weekly decline, pushing BTC below $110,000 for the first time since early September. Flat trading followed August's U.S. Core inflation data holding at 2.9%, while geopolitical risks from new tariff announcements further dampened risk appetite. "Capital flows remain cautious," noted Bitunix analyst Dean Chen.